Steve Clarke - stick or twist?

Firstly I would like to say thank you for the response on the first lot of posts I put out. They seemed to go down well and I enjoyed putting them together, so happy days all round. In case you missed them, we reflected on qualification and playing the curtain raiser, the Swiss game and lastly, the gut wrenching defeat to Hungary.

As is commonplace after such results, there is an almost instantaneous inquest into ‘what went wrong’, and the immediate future of the manager tends to go under the microscope.

Here we will have a look at the arguments for and against keeping the Scotland National Team manager around, and draw some conclusions for what may be the best route forward for us as a footballing nation.

The story so far

May 2019. After an excellent couple of seasons at Kilmarnock, taking them from bottom spot in the Premiership when he took over in October 2017 to third and European football at the end of 2018/19 season, the worst kept secret in Scottish football was officially confirmed. Steve Clarke was the new manager of the national side.

In my recollection, the appointment was warmly received, pretty much all round. He’s a man with experience coaching at the highest of levels with the biggest of clubs. A trusted associate of giants of the game including Jose Mourinho, Ruud Gullit, Gianfranco Zola and of course, Scotland legend Kenny Dalglish. His more pragmatic approach was thought well suited to international football.

And by god, were we in need of a lift. We had been drawn into a tough looking group for the Euro 2020 qualifiers including a Belgium side with their ‘golden generation’ at the peak of their powers and a Russia team who had been a penalty shoot out away from being World Cup semi finalists less than a year previously. And then obviously we’d lost the first game 3-0 to Kazakhstan. 117th in the world Kazakhstan. It was followed up with a wholly unimpressive performance against San Marino and that was that for Alex McLeish.

Cyprus would be the first opponent for a Steve Clarke Scotland XI, and a late strike from Oliver Burke (mind him) saw us win 2-1. Some positive early signs in a game that Scotland, admittedly, should always be winning. Four straight games then followed against the aforementioned top seeds in our group and that saw four defeats, quite a lot of goals conceded and not many scored. Not the best of starts then. But, as would become one of his definining traits, Clarke’s mannerisms didn’t alter much even after heavy defeats. There was no panic.

Three consecutive victories over San Marino, Cyprus and Kazakhstan concluded the campaign. More encouraging.

Despite being a little confusing initially, the introduction of the UEFA Nations League has proved to be a real winner. Scotland were amongst the first countries given the opportunity for the ‘back door’ route to the European Championships. Get through two games and you were there.

Behind closed doors due to the ongoing pandemic, game one was against Israel - the team we couldn’t seem to get away from for a 3/4 year period. An understandably nervy 120 minutes returned no breaking of the deadlock, taking us to a penalty shoot out. David Marshall makes a save from Zahavi, Scotland score all their spot kicks and we’re off to Belgrade to take on the Serbs who had disposed of Norway in their semi final.

A similarly nervy game saw Scotland take the lead in the second half after a superb Ryan Christie strike, only for Serbia to draw level in stoppage time. Of course they did. This is the Scotland way.

Penalties again. 9 perfect ones to start it off. Sudden death. Goal machine and designated penalty taker Mitrovic steps up. Marshall dives to his left. You know the the rest.

The Euros then. Our first major tournament appearance in 23 years by the time the delayed tournament came to be. An undoubted success for the new manager and his squad.

The tournament itself saw a good performance at Wembley sandwiched in between two less good ones at Hampden. One goal and one point from three games. Bottom place in the group. Not exactly setting the heather alight, but it was nice to see us involved on such a stage for once.

The following campaign for the 2022 World Cup saw an improved showing, if eventually unsuccessful. Only one defeat and that was away to top seeds Denmark. 7 goals conceded in 10 games. 23 points. A very respectable return.

Second place in that group saw us into a play off. It would be Ukraine in the semi final. As I’m sure you all remember, the Russian invasion began not long before that game was due to take place and it got pushed back into the summer. There was a truly unique feel around the game, and Scotland fell to a 3-1 defeat. That was that for the Doha dream.

A promotion to Nations League Group A helped to quell that disappointment, with a particularly gutsy away draw against Ukraine to secure the point we needed to top our section.

I won’t dwell too much on the qualification campaign just past and resulting tournament as it will be fresh in everyone’s minds. If you’d appreciate a reminder, I visited this in a previous post. But clearly, the qualification campaign was an excellent success. The tournament itself, less so.

The case for the defence

For what it’s worth, I think sticking with the status quo, at least for the time being, is the route that the SFA will take. Whether Steve Clarke takes that decision into his own hands remains to be seen.

On the face of it, I can understand why. This is by far the most successful period that a whole generation of supporters have seen, after some pretty barren times stretching from defeat against Morocco in 1998 through to the beginning of the current decade. A lot of managers with strong track records have come and gone without seeing us get particularly close to qualifying for a major tournament.

The players clearly hold him in high regard and are willing to take on board any instruction he gives out. A lot has been made by players, media and fans alike of the ‘club like’ feeling that has been developed under his stewardship. It feels like players are excited by the national team, replacing years gone by where it has seemed like more of a chore and we would see high numbers pulling out of squads it should have been an honour to be included in. That is no more. Any hint of that and you’re out the door - see Ryan Fraser.

Over the years, Clarke and his staff have cultivated a formation and system that allows for both Kieran Tierney and Andrew Robertson to play - and be effective. This system also helps bring the best out of McGinn and McTominay and has turned them into real goal threats for the side.

His loyalty to players who serve him well is one of his most embedded traits. We now have a squad full of players who have played many times together and have developed understandings over that time. Many members of the squad are nearing or past the 50 cap mark. This wealth of experience can only serve us well.

The seemingly unflappable nature of Steve Clarke in his post match interviews that go out to the public is another such trait. Be it an excellent win or a poor defeat, the man’s demeanour tends not to change much. A few of the players have noted this before, explaining that it helps keep collective feet on the ground when things are going well, but also prevents heads going too far down when it might be looking to head slightly awry.

Whilst the results at Euro 2024 were undoubtedly disappointing, the injuries Scotland got to key players were always destined to throw us off our stride somewhat. Both our options for the right wing back role injured meant relying on either the previously uncapped Ross McCrorie, or Celtic’s Tony Ralston, who you could never accuse of a lack of heart and desire but his subpar ability on the ball can be painfully shown up, especially at the highest international level.

And then on the eve of the tournament, the news that everyone’s favourite Australian is out of the tournament. Dykes is key to how we play, proving invaluable on many occasions in getting us up the pitch, bringing our midfielders into the game and, of course, popping up with the odd vital goal.

How much game time Lewis Ferguson would’ve seen through the Euros is uncertain, but I like to think we would have seen him to some extent in each of the games. Losing him to an ACL injury was a tough one for us and himself alike, especially on the back of winning the award for best midfielder in the Serie A and captaining Bologna to Champions League football.

Whilst not an excuse for the end result of the tournament, these injuries undoubtedly hindered to some extent our preparations and tournament performances.

The stability of his half decade in charge to this point has undoubtedly provided the platform for this recent period of success, and the connection between the team and the supporters feels as strong as I’ve ever seen it. Steve Clarke deserves a lot of credit for this.

On the other hand..

Whilst the Tartan Army is undoubtedly thankful to Clarke for all he’s done over the years, there was a definite altering of the mood after the defeat against Hungary confirmed our second consecutive bottom place group stage finish.

The particular nature of the defeat in the last game was hard for some to stomach, one shot on target in a game we knew from the beginning that we had to take the victory in, and that shot coming from a centre half in the 98th minute is simply not good enough. It wasn’t exactly Capello’s 93/94 Milan side we were up against. We played with five defenders on the pitch until the 83rd minute and this was to the great frustration of everyone watching on.

Whether changes to personnel or shape happening earlier would’ve changed anything is up for debate, but the stubborn persistence with a 5 at the back formation when it was clear we weren’t creating any clear cut chances was without doubt a mistake. And a glaring one at that.

Another issue I know has stuck in the craw for some fans is his ‘Negative Norman’ comments made on the eve of the tournament. Whilst I believe this comment was more aimed at journalists than the supporters, the opinions of the journalists in question that Scotland weren’t exactly flying heading into this summer’s tournament wasn’t one that was solely held by those within the media.

So it came across to some as a bristly sort of ‘how can you question me’ type answer. At the end of the tournament, it looks like some of the concerns held by these ‘Negative Normans’ may have been valid ones after all. Clarke has done well to create a good bond between the team and the supporters, but this is not boundless.

Going back a couple of years, we revisit the failure to qualify for the World Cup 2022 edition. After a good group stage showing overall, we were drawn to face Ukraine and then what would’ve been Wales to qualify for the biggest sporting tournament in the world. I think most would’ve taken that result when it came out.

As mentioned before, clearly the circumstances surrounding the Ukraine game were totally unique and must’ve felt slightly uncomfortable for all involved. But the game itself we totally failed to get a grip of at any point and the occasion looked too much for us. Don’t seem to recall Wales having similar issues despite similar circumstances surrounding their game in the final a few days later.

A big disappointment.

After Euro 2020, we were told by players and staff alike that the team would be better for the experience of that competition, and I think we all believed them. However, in the cold light of day, the performance of the team has stayed exactly the same from one tournament to the next. 1 draw and 2 defeats. Bottom spot. In my opinion, our squad was stronger and the group stage opponents weaker this time around. So an argument could even be made that we’ve actually regressed when it comes to tournament football. In an era where 16 out of the 24 teams get through, to not even get close either time is poor.

Such is the nature of the game, that the end responsibility for such eventualities lands at the door of the manager.

In the view of more than a few, Steve Clarke has taken this team as far as he can.

So, what next?

As mentioned above, I believe that Steve Clarke will remain as Scotland manager, at least for the time being. A poor showing in this years Nations League may be the catalyst for this to change.

Football supporters, myself included, tend to be reactionary by nature and there was a lot of chat, certainly online, that we should be looking to head in a new direction in the aftermath of the Hungary game.

Some I’ve spoken to still hold this view as strongly as they did at 11pm CET on Sunday 23rd June, some have softened in their view and are willing to give him the Nations League to see if he can turn things around. Personally, I tend to flit between the two.

I have no doubt that if Clarke is in charge when it comes to the Poland game in September he will have the backing of Hampden. However, the patience of the Tartan Army is in danger of wearing thin.

He could definitely win over a few doubters in the meantime by freshening up the squad and looking to alter systems as it does seem like our current one which has brought success has been sussed out by teams and relies on pretty much all of our players being fit, something becoming less common in the ever demanding modern game at the highest level.

So, whilst Steve Clarke remains with goodwill and support within the support, players and the SFA alike for now, things must improve for this to remain.